Polyethylene Import-Export Pattern Sees Structural Reversal as Self-Sufficiency Rate Rises Above 80%

From January to July 2026, China's polyethylene import and export pattern showed a structural reversal. According to customs statistics, cumulative imports during the period reached approximately 5.52 million tons, while cumulative exports totaled about 2.05 million tons. The import side was significantly affected by ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with a notable year-on-year decline, while the export side grew substantially, driven by both domestic capacity releases and overseas supply gaps.

On a monthly basis, China's polyethylene imports in July reached about 520,000 tons, rebounding month-on-month but still down more than 50% year-on-year. The month-on-month recovery was mainly due to the brief resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which allowed previously stranded Middle Eastern cargoes to arrive in concentrated volumes in mid-to-late July. Meanwhile, the monthly incremental output of domestic linear low-density polyethylene has exceeded total monthly imports, and the crowding-out effect of domestic substitution on imports is escalating from a marginal influence to a dominant variable.

On the export side, China's polyethylene exports in July reached about 220,000 tons, retreating month-on-month but still more than doubling year-on-year. Export destinations are highly concentrated in emerging manufacturing economies in Southeast Asia and South Asia, with Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh leading the list. After explosive growth from March to May, monthly export volumes have fallen back from their peak to above 200,000 tons, but still represent a qualitative leap compared with the same period last year.

Overall, China's polyethylene import-export pattern has transitioned from the extreme divergence seen in the first half of the year to a relatively stable new normal. With domestic capacity continuing to come online and export channels becoming increasingly mature, the structural characteristics of low imports and high exports are expected to persist. The domestic polyethylene self-sufficiency rate has risen above 80%, and import dependence continues to decline.